Could Montreal's real estate market be the next target for foreign investors?

A new tax on foreign buyers in Vancouver has real estate agents predicting a spillover effect into other Canadian markets.

But it's unclear if Montreal, often an outlier when it comes to real estate trends, will be among them.

"I really don't think this is something that's looming for Montreal," saidMartin Desjardins, a Montreal realtor with Sutton Quebec.

The market here is "nothing compared to what's happening in Toronto and Vancouver," he said.

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The new 15 per cent tax, which took effect Tuesday,was introducedby the British Columbia government with the intent of improving home affordability in Metro Vancouver, where house prices are among the highest in North America.

Ontario Finance Minister CharlesSousahas said he is examining the possibility ofa similar tax"very closely," as a measure toaddress Toronto's skyrocketing home prices.

Domino effect

Experts believe the Vancouver tax could exacerbate the booming housing market inToronto and, potentially, affect other Canadian cities.

BradHenderson, president and CEO ofSotheby'sInternational Realty Canada, saidsome foreign nationals could turn to areas not subject to a tax either elsewhere in British Columbia or farther afield.

"Certainly I think Toronto and potentially other markets likeMontrealwill start to become more attractive, because comparatively speaking they will be less expensive,''Henderson said.

However, the Montreal market has so far remained off the radar offoreign investors.

France, U.S top Montreal foreign buyers

In a report last month, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation saidthenumber of foreign investors in the Montrealarea is small and concentrated in condominiums in the city's downtown.

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The report found that 1.3 per cent of condominiums in the greater Montreal regionwere owned by foreigners last year.

That number jumps tonearly fiveper centin the city's downtown.

Residents of theUnited States and France accounted for the majority offoreign buyers, while China (at eight per cent) and Saudi Arabia (five per cent) accounted for far fewer buyers.

FrancisCortellino, the CMHCmarket analyst who prepared the study, said it's difficult to determinewhether theVancouver tax will change the situation much in Montreal.

"We're not sure yet what [buyers] will do," he said."There are a lot of possibilities."

In Montreal,Desjardins said the foreign real estate buyers most often operate on a much smaller scale, often consisting of"mom and pop investors" or people from France looking for a more affordable lifestyle.

"I don't think it will ever be to the point where we'll have to put a tax," he said.

Average home prices for June 2016, according to theCanadian Real Estate Association:

• Greater Vancouver:$917,800
• Greater Toronto:$647,600
• Greater Montreal:$310,200