Volatility in Quebec rare sign vote could be shared

The volatility of the Quebec vote is offering Canada'smain political parties something rarely seen during a federalelection campaign: most of the province's votes are up for grabs bymultiple parties.

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Quebecers usually vote in blocs or "waves," as they arecommonly called as the NDP, led by the charismatic Jack Layton,found out in 2011 when they rode one to a stunning 59 out of 75seats.

This time around, however, consistent polling indicates the NDP,Liberals, Conservatives and maybe even the Bloc Qubcois have astrong chance of sharing the province's spoils after theOct. 19.

"What's clear is that Quebec is going to be a box ofsurprises," said Eric Montigny, political science professor at
Laval University in Quebec City.

The Liberals are strong around the Montreal area -- which offersroughly 30 seats -- and the Bloc and the NDP are fighting for votesin Quebec's regions.

Political jostling in Quebec City

The volatility in Quebec is particularly present around theprovincial capital, where the NDP is defending against a
Conservative party that wants the historic city's seats back tocompensate for expected losses in other parts of the country,notably in Ontario, Montigny said.

Quebec City is somewhat of an anomaly in Quebec, a metropoliswith a larger-than-average contingent of military families, citizenswith higher salaries than the Quebec average, and an unemploymentrate under 5 per cent -- the envy of most of the country.

All are reasons why Quebec City voters gravitate to theConservative party's message of low taxes, national security, andefficient management of the state bureaucracy, Montigny said.

Canadian Forces Base Valcartier is just north of Quebec City "soissues tied to security and national defence are important," headded.

The niqab issue

But the volatility in the region is also due to a major campaignissue that has so far not lacked media coverage: the question ofwhether women should be allowed to wear face veils duringcitizenship ceremonies.

The Conservatives and the Bloc say no; the NDP and the Liberalssay yes. Polls suggest that position has been damaging to the NewDemocrats in particular.

Irwin Cotler, the outgoing Montreal MP who has been a Liberal for16 years, said his party's leader, Justin Trudeau, has been"sheltered" somewhat from the niqab controversy because his votesare concentrated around Montreal.

"Around the urban areas of Montreal I think [the niqab]issueplays less well [than in the regions]," Cotler said.

Serge Cadieux, of the province's largest labour federation, theFTQ, said the pull of the niqab issue has "re-routed" his group'sanyone-but-Conservatives electoral strategy.

The FTQ is getting out the union vote in ridings with strongConservative support and in favour of the candidate who's bestpositioned to beat his or her Tory rival, regardless of affiliation.

They targeted five ridings in Quebec City and in all five, thefederation says NDP candidates had the best chance to beatConservatives and still do.

But the NDP's position on the niqab has made voters lessinterested in the FTQ's plan of attack, Cadieux said.

"The question of the niqab has been extremely damaging to theNDP's vote," he said.

"We had to re-double our efforts. We had tohave longer discussions with our members and we had to call back theones we already convinced."

Daniel Caron, the NDP candidate in the Quebec City riding ofLouis-Saint-Laurent a riding on the FTQ's hit list said he metwith the labour federation around Labour Day, but said he hasn'treally felt their presence on the campaign trail.

The city's conservative-populist radio shows are another story,he said.

Conservative support gaining?

Caron's rival, star Conservative candidate Gerard Deltell, isgetting far more airtime than he is, Caron said.

"Deltell is on the air a lot," he said. "And many of thecallers seem to favour certain (conservative) political ideas over
others."

The Tory star, who left provincial politics to run federally, wastasked with rehabilitating the Conservatives' image in Quebec,Montigny said, and has a lot of pressure on him to deliver.

Deltell is an example of the big names the Tories recruited torun in Quebec, alongside popular mayor Alain Rayes and formerjournalist Pascale Dry, who are running in ridings southwest ofQuebec City and both of whom have a good chance at winning.

And while a strong showing in Quebec City can help to relaunchthe Tories in the province, the Liberals are also hoping thiselection will reinvigorate their party in Quebec, where vote-richMontreal could triple their 2011 seat count of seven.

While the so-called Quebec "wave" might be less present thistime around, Quebecers' penchant for supporting a candidate whosecharacter they can relate to is still very much a factor, Cotlersaid.

In 2011, the NDP benefited from Layton's character, "his senseof decency," Cotler explained. This time around, he said, it willbe the Liberals benefiting from Trudeau's personality.

"Trudeau's character, his openness, his honesty and sense ofbasic decency -- we should not discard that [for Quebec voters]."