A wind of change blowing through Point Douglas?

The June 13byelectionin Point Douglas delivered an11th consecutive election victory for the Manitoba NDP in the inner-city Winnipeg constituency.

But while rookie candidate BernadetteSmith secured thevictory, an unusually strong Liberal surge madeground in the neighbourhood at the expense of astruggling NDP.

A CBC News analysis of the auditedbyelectionresults for every polling divisionreveals thatLiberal candidate John Cacayuranmanaged to drum up widespread supportthroughout the constituency.

Not only did Cacayurancapture 29 per cent of the popular vote (up from 19 per cent for the Liberals in the 2016 general election), but he also won eight of the 40 polling divisions seven more than the Liberals took in 2016, and entirely at the expense of the NDP.

The maps below show the winning party by voting area within the constituency of Point Douglas for the last three elections. Darker colours indicate a larger margin of victory between the first and second place candidates.

Christopher Adams, a political analyst at St. Paul's College at the University of Manitoba, said historically, Liberals tend to shine inbyelectionsin this province.

"When you vote in a byelection, it's very different because you aren't choosing your premier," he said.

"People are more willing to experiment or vote less strategically than in a general election."

Adams said in general elections, voters tend to migrate towarda candidate that represents apartywith a likelihood of having influence, rather than voting for their true preference.

"I think [these results are]a reflection of the damage the NDP has taken over the past few years," he said.

The Progressive Conservatives' share of the popular vote has remained steady in the constituency, at around17 per cent for the last three elections, with most of their support coming from the most southern region of the neighbourhood, along Waterfront Drive.

Adams said the rise of up-scale condo developments in this area explains the consistent Conservative support.

"Here we're looking at demographics: people voting according to theirsocio-economicstatus, no surprise here."

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