U.S. election: Manitoba businesses could benefit from Trump presidency, prof says

Many local business owners seem unsure of how a Donald Trump presidency could affect trade between Canada and the U.S., but one professor says the Manitoba economy could benefit from having theApprenticestar at the helm.

During the campaign, Trump called the North American Free Trade Agreement "the worst trade deal in history" and vowed to renegotiate it.

• What would it take for Donald Trump to rip up NAFTA?

ButTrump is not likely to abandonNAFTA, according to University of Manitoba Asper School of Business professor John McCallum.

"There's not a chance in the world,"Trump will tear up the deal between the U.S. and Canada, McCallum said Wednesday. And whatever changes Trumpmakes to the agreement regarding Mexico, theywill only indirectly affect Canada, he said.

"One thing about Donald Trump, maybe above all else, is he's a businessman. He can see costs and benefits, prices ... ups and downs and he knows how to do a deal," he said.

Trumpdefied predictions by beating U.S. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.

He has voiced frustration over the U.S. Federal Reserve, which he saidkeeps interestrates artificially low.

• Wall Street reacts to Trump with a shrug despite pro-business bluster

If interest rates were to rise under Trump and the Canadian dollar were to go down, more Canadian products would likely head south and boost Manitoba's, and Canada's export revenue, McCallum said, even though that would also make it more expensive for Canadian snowbirds and grocery shoppers here.

"So, we kind of lose on the price of orange juice and radishes and we gain on the dollar giving us better cost economics for selling into the U.S.," McCallum said. He also said Trump's promise to cut taxes could deliver huge gains to the North American economy.

Farmers react to election

Keystone Agricultural Producers represents 4,500 farmers and 23 commodity groups on the Prairies, and many are probably unsure whether the incoming administration will hurt or help business, presidentDanMazier said.

"The bottom line is we're going to have to deal with the new regime now," he said.

About $51 billion in goods cross the U.S.-Canada border every month, say TD Bank economists Beata Caranci and Leslie Preston.

Manitoba did $16 billion worth of business south of the border last year, according to the government of Manitoba.

Were Trump to take on NAFTA, Canadian agriculture producers wouldbe one of the groups most vulnerable, Mazier said.

• Trump election win increases uncertainty for Canadian trade: economists
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The long-term trade agreement between countries has been generally viewed as positive by grain producers, and turfing it would be bad for farmers, Mazier said.

"It would be the detriment of what we have going right now," Mazier said, adding farmers would be forced to look farther abroad for buyers interested in Canadian grain.

"In Manitoba here, we export between 70 and 80 per cent of our products to the U.S., so anybody starts saying we want to go back and revisit these trade agreements, that is a concern."

Friendships to be formed

While there is uncertainty over whether Trump will make good on his word, Mazier said the trade relationship between Canada and the U.S. will adapt out ofnecessity.

"We have great border relationships versus the southern part of their country, but that needs to be built; friendships need to be formed, renewed," Mazier said.

"He keeps on talking, 'Going to make America great again.' Hopefully that's with the help of Canada and not to the detriment of Canada."

'Dirty little secret'

Winnipeg-based human resources consultant, Brad Lutz, said he was fascinated and surprised to see Americans vote the way they did.

Manypolitical prognosticators predicted a Clinton win, andLutz has a theory about why that didn't happen.

"It was almost like Trump was a lot of people's dirty little secret. They didn't want to admit it to the pollsters, but they wanted some sort of change and they voted it for it," Lutzsaid.

Lutz said it's not yet clear how Trump will handle trade, in part due to his reputation forchanging his mind on various issues.

"He's in fact supported Democratic stances on many things in the past, so waiting to see what he'll be as president versus candidate will give us a better sense," Lutz said.

Brian Scharfstein of Canadian Footwear said he has already been in touch with his U.S. suppliers to try to gauge their response to Trump's victory and what kind of effect it might have on trade.

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In the long run, Scharfstein said he doesn't yet have any big concerns business will be negatively impacted, but he isn't really sure.

"We're a little anxious," he said. "We certainly have concerns about the goods coming from the States up to Canada.... Just how goods will flow, and whether there will be hesitation is a big concern for all of us."

As for Winnipeg Mayor Brian Bowman, he'll be keeping a close eye on trade talks and hopes Canada's strong history as a trade partner to the U.S. will continue.

"We will be watching with great interest and great concern about how our trading relationships may be affected by the change," he said.