Manitoba election: As St. Norbert grows, political race tightens

An influx of hundreds of familiesthousands of new votersanda narrow victory for the NDP in the last electionhave political watchers calling St. Norbert a constituencyin play.

St. Norberthas neighbourhoods with mature trees and older homes, but it's also dotted with some of the newest andfastest-growing suburbs in the city.

The Manitoba constituency is home to mostof the newWaverley West subdivision. The sprawling developmentcovers 3,000 acres (1,214 hectares) in southwest Winnipeg.

New Democrat Dave Gaudreau won the seat by just 31 votes in 2011 and describedthat election night as "exciting."

He's lived in St. Norbert for more than three decades,exchanginga welder'storch Gaudreauis a journeyman welder for a campaign sign just a few weeks before the 2011 election.

Now his constituency has changed radically.

"The area is just growing. Every dayI drive through there is a new home," Gaudreau said.

The NDP candidate said he's meeting"a lot of newcomers" to Canada and Manitoba. As he knocks on doors, thefeedback for his party is positive, he said.

"I think people are realizing times are good. Manitoba's economy is good and their homes were built under good times, good circumstances. They are obviously doing well," Gaudreau said.

He added, with a grin, that it might be one of the few municipal constituencies with its own flock of wild turkeys, a character that makes door knocking that much more interesting.

Growth poses challenges for province

But with growth comes the need for services, someof which the province provides, likeschools and care homes,and some that it doesn't, such astransit lines, community centres andemergency services.

Liberal candidateJames Bloomfield is a business consultant anda lifelong St. Norbert resident.Hepicks up on the theme of a lack of services in the areaimmediately.

"The province has really let the people down, in South Pointe particularly,"he said.

Bloomfield points to a lack of commercial services in thehuge subdivision and is critical of how the NDP government has plannedschools in the area. Anew school won't be completed until next year.

Bloomfield admits his partydoesn'thave the "election machine" that the two other major parties can field. Hecalledthe Liberals the "spunky third party" and saidthe response he gets everywhere is positive.

"Every door I get to is very similar feedback:'We don't trust the NDP, we have problems with the NDP, and we are afraid of the cuts that the Conservatives are probably going to bring in,'" Bloomfield said.

Mistrust of the NDP comes in part from comments made by Dave Gaudreau in acaucus meetingin March, whenhe told party members he was getting a lot of negative comments about NDPLeader GregSelinger while campaigning, said Bloomfield.

"People know about that and that's a concern for them. They don't trust the NDP, and they see the people within the NDP don't trust eachother and aren't working together," Bloomfield said.

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Progressive Conservative candidate Jon Reyes saidhe's also hearing doubts about the NDP as he doorknocks.

"When you have a premier who has had five cabinet ministers resign, people don't see the stability.They don'tsee the team," Reyes says.

Reyes saidhe also hears from voters about a lack of services in St. Norbert. Bettercollaboration is needed between the MLA,the area's city councillorand its member of Parliament, he said.

"It's all about teamwork," Reyes said.

The PCs have been cautious about making specificpromises in the campaign, but on infrastructure they have pledged a billion dollars in spending. Reyes saidsome of that will flow to St. Norbert as long as it meets some criteria.

"It has to be beneficial to Manitoba's economy, ensure that it is a fair and open tender process for municipalities and for construction companies for these contracts," Reyes said.

2011 was a close race

All three of the major party candidates said they have had plenty of support in the constituency as they campaign, but it's hard not to remember how close the race was in 2011.

Political scientist Christopher Adams said much of south Winnipeg was a traditional stronghold for the PCs until Gary Doer's NDP gobbled up a number of seats and the party kept them through the Greg Selingerera.

The demographic shift in St. Norbert has made it much more similar to the rest of Winnipeg, he said.

Adams considersSt. Norberta bellwether constituency in this election and expects the Liberals to have a decent showing in the area.

"[St. Norbert]would be a tough one for the NDP to hold on to, and this would be one of the swing seats," Adams said.

Polling data Adams haslooked at suggests the Liberals could pull votes from the NDP in the constituency, he said.

As the constituency gets more affluent and more suburban, its residents focus more on taxes and improving the properties they own, Adams said. Those attitudes can play to the advantage of the Progressive Conservatives, he said.

Independent candidateNarinder Kaur Johar could not be reached in time for publication.