Spring flooding forecast for southern Manitoba

It could be a wet spring in southern Manitoba, so communities are being urged to preparevolunteersto hold back the rising tide.

The Manitoba government released the first flood outlook of the year on Thursday and it suggests the province is on pace for the fourth highest flood levels on record.

While there has been average snowfall this winter, soil moisture levels are 150 per cent higher than normal, which means the ground won't be able to absorb much water come spring thaw, according to Manitoba Water Stewardship (MWS).

As a result, emergency planners have contacted communities along the Red River to warn them. Near-record water levels are expected along the Red River Valley, the Interlake, and areas around the Souris and Pembina rivers.

Don Brennan, spokesperson for the Emergency Measures Organization (EMO), told CBC that detailed plans are already in the works to deal with flooding in those areas.

'Failing to plan is planning to fail.' Don Brennan, Emergency Measures Organization

But the best-laid plans aren't any good without volunteers to help carry them out, he said.

"Volunteers are absolutely essential. Especially in Manitoba we depend a lot on volunteers and they should be revisiting the volunteer list to see who's ready and willing,"Brennan said, adding the EMO is working closely with municipalities to get equipment to the regions before the flooding starts.

While there could be cause for some evacuations, the potential for major disaster is small, Brennan said.

"This is done every single year. We bring the evacuation committee together, not that we anticipate evacuations, but failing to plan is planning to fail," he said.

The forecast is based on the assumption the province will receive average precipitation until the spring thaw. Should that hold, officials predicta "flood of inconvenience," one that affects fields and municipal roads, but is not expected to damage homes or communities.

"It would affect the transportation system and two ring-dyke communities would have to have partial closure those would be Morris and St. Adolphe," said MWS spokesperson Steve Topping.

"Minor, localized flooding could occur during the early part of the run-off due to ice jams and, while the probability of major ice jams on larger rivers is only average, these larger ice jams cannot be ruled out," says the flood forecast by MWS.

No repeat of 1997 flood

Should the province receive more than average precipitation leading to the thaw, we could experience the second-highest water levels recorded, but they will still fall far short of what has been called the Flood of the Century in 1997, according to MWS.

"Even with unfavourable weather, peak water levels on the Red are predicted to be significantly lower than 1997. Under present conditions, there is less than a five per cent chance of a flood comparable to 1997," the flood forecast states.

That flood,the most severe in the region since 1826, caused $4.4 billion in damages along the Red River Valley between Winnipeg and Grand Forks, N.D. About 80,000 people were evacuated from their homes.

The 2009 outlook also calls for much less concern to communities along the Assiniboine River, where the flood potential is listed as average.

The risk is average to below average in the Westman area from Riding Mountain to The Pas and in the north of the province.