Manitoba must jolt electric vehicles sales, cut emissions significantly to hit net-zero: consultant

Manitoba needs to turn passenger vehicles electric and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissionsif the province wantsto achievenet-zero emissions by 2050, an environmental firm says.

The province hired Montreal-based Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors to devise a new energy policy framework.

As part of that effort, the firm detailedwhat Manitoba must do tomeet the federal government's net zero emissions target by 2050 at the lowest cost.

It calls for "significant emissions reductions in all sectors, driven largely by electrification, made possible by an increase in renewable electricity," according to a document Dunsky prepared for a stakeholder meeting last month. The NDP obtained a copy and tabled it Wednesday during question period.

Net-zero is reachedwhen all the greenhouse gas emissions producedare offset by emissions removed from the atmosphere.

Remaking the vehicles on the road

To hitthat target, the environmental firm suggests all cars, passenger trucks, SUVs and light- and medium-duty trucks become electric, along with relying onhydrogen and biofuels to fuel most buses and heavy-duty vehicles.

The federal government has set a 2035 target for every new light-duty vehicle sold in Canada to produce zero emissions.

Dunsky is suggesting the electrification of 87 per cent of heating systems for buildings, with a focus on geothermal. In turn, the share of natural gas systems used to heat buildingswould becut by 43 per cent.

It recommends a 66 per cent increase in clean electricity generation, such aswind power and biomass.

And Dunsky suggests Manitoba can also counteract some carbon emissions by generating bioenergythroughcarbon capture and storage, as well as direct air capture.

The firm stressedits modelling is not a forecast, but a "portrait, using best available knowledge as of 2021, of the changes required" to achieve net zero.

It also says if Manitoba continues down its current path, its emissions will continue to increase over the next three decades at least.

The Progressive Conservative government has been trying to cut emissions by a cumulative one megatonne between 2018 and 2022. The reduction target over the five-year period is 4.4 per cent of the 22.6 megatonnes Manitoba emitted in 2019 alone.

NDP environment critic Lisa Naylorpointsout the measures described by Dunskyhave not been adopted by the province. Dunsky issoliciting public feedback before itrecommends options for Manitoba's new energy policy framework.

"I'm glad that this government isdoing some engagement to try to figure out a better path, but these ideas are not part of the current Climate and Green Plan, they're not part of what they've been doing for the last six years," Naylorsaid.

"I need to see some action to know that there's actually going to be any change in this province."

Jeff Wharton , minister of environment, climate and parks, said Dunsky would provide his department witha draft report of its findings in the coming weeks. He was not privy to all details in the leaked report, he said.

"Just over 30 days onthe job [as environment minister], I've seen some greatinformation pointing that we are looking at doing things that are going to make a difference, moving forward collaboratively, again, with the federal government as we work together towardmoving Canada, and basicallyManitoba, as leaders when it comes to emission reductions."

Dunsky's report also recommendsManitoba offer incentives for people to buy electric vehicles, help electrifybuildings through the use ofincentives and developa provincial carbon pricing plan.

Significant changes needed to get Manitoba to net-zero emissions by 2050

3 years ago

Duration 2:06

If Manitoba wants to offset all carbon emissions it produces, it has a long way to go. The province recently hired an environmental contractor and that company has sketched out an ambitious plan to get Manitoba to net-zero emissions by 2050.