Manitoba NDP could lose Brandon East for the first time; analyst expects 'shocker'

For the first time in nearly five decades, Brandon East is a constituency to watch on election night.

Brandon East has been held by the New Democrats every election since it was created in 1969, but just two weeks ahead of the vote, a Brandon political observer forecast"an upset" and historicchange for the constituency.

"I'm seeing winds of change happening, which is really going to be quite a shocker," said Kelly Saunders, an associate professor of political science at Brandon University. "It's going to be really interesting, because certainly [NDP] Drew [Caldwell] is well-likedand I think a well-respected MLA, but I think he's going to be caught up in a couple of things."

We are an island of sanity in a sea of Tory blue in western Manitoba.- NDP incumbentDrew Caldwell

During the revolt against NDP Leader Greg Selinger in fall 2014, Caldwell supportedSelinger.

When five top ministers quit Selinger's cabinet, Caldwell replaced outgoing minister Stan Struthers as the municipal affairs minister.

"I think just across the province we're going to see a [Tory] blue wave happening, but also too, the fact that Drew was one of Selinger's biggest supporters during the whole leadership debacle, so I think that's going to come back to hurt himas well."

A Probe Research poll last December suggested Caldwell's support had plummeted to 18 per cent, with the PCs and the Liberals neck-and-neck around 40 per cent.

The socioeconomic makeup of Brandon East has become more affluent over the past few yearsand voters are less likely to align themselves with the NDP, Saunders added.

"So the kind of poor versusricher riding things that we might have seen before really isn't in play anymore," she said. "I think that also is going to hurt Drew a little bit in terms of there isn't really that core group of supporters and voters that there might have been, you know, in times before."

Caldwell slams analysis as biased

As Caldwell rushed around a bustling campaign office, which he shares with Brandon West NDP candidate Linda Ross, the longtime MLA and cabinet minister called foul on Saunders' analysis.

"I respect Kelly, but I also understand that Kelly was Jim McCrae's conservative staffer during the [PC premier Gary] Filmon years. So there's a political bias in everything that Kelly brings to the table," said Caldwell, adding the warm reception he's received historically at the door persists in this campaign.

"We are an island of sanity in a sea of Tory blue in western Manitoba."

Caldwell said while the rest of the province may be holding a referendum on NDP Leader Greg Selinger, his constituency is only focused on him.

"People know me very, very well," he said.

Brandon's main thoroughfare, 18th Street, divides the city into two electoral halves, with traditionally very different voting records.

The Progressive Conservatives have won nine of the last 12 battles for Brandon West, but sometimes with slim margins, such as the 2007 PC victory over the NDP witha 56-vote spread.

It's an uphill battle that we're working towards achieving. We want to set history.- Brandon East PC candidateLen Isleifson

The story in Brandon East has never been that close nor that blue.

Former NDP cabinet minister Len Evans held the constituency from 1969 until 1995. Caldwellhas won Brandon East for the NDP ever since.

In the 2016 race, three former city councillors are vying for the seat.

Caldwellis campaigning against recently departed Brandon city councillorsLen Isleifson for the PCs and Vanessa Hamilton, who stepped down in March to run for the Liberals.

Caldwell said the No. 1 issue in Brandon is building the city, and he said over the past decade, the NDP has contributed the highest level of investment ever seen in Brandon.

A school in the city's south end is a major issue in the campaign. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised to build it, if elected.

Isleifson's campaign wouldn't promise a Tory government would build a school, but said education was a top priority.

"Neither the NDP or the Liberals are announcing how big [a school, or ] how many teachers will be needed," Isleifson's campaign said. "It seems to be the continuedthrow arbitrary numbers at an issue in hopes that people will believe it will come to fruition."

Tory candidate wants to 'set history'

The one-term municipal politician decided to join provincial politics after co-chairing the city's poverty committee.

"Just hitting wall after wall in trying to deal with issues that are related to provincial issues rather than municipal issues kind ofhad me sit back and say, 'If I want to make a difference, I have toget past these issues, and the best way is to become involved provincially,'" Isleifson said.

In June 2015, Isleifson was the first Brandon East candidate to be nominated, and with less than two weeks left before the vote, he said he was ready to steal the NDP stronghold.

"I love a challenge. It creates an opportunity to show that I am serious about this. Again, it's an uphill battle that we're working towards achieving. We want to set history," he said.

No Liberal HQ, no problem, candidate says

Unlike the other two candidates in Brandon East, CBC News met Liberal Vanessa Hamilton outside a community centre, because the newly minted candidate has no campaign headquarters.

"I don't believe you get votes at a campaign office. I believe you get votes by reaching people at the door," said Hamilton, who stepped down as a city councilloronMarch 18. "I wanted to respect residents while I was on council, so I did very little organizing.I wasn't asking people for money, and so now I am going full steam."

Hamilton hoped to get to every door in the constituency personally, but now with only about a week left, she'srelying on her team to hit some of the constituents.

"As a rookie provincial candidate, I didn't realize the intensity of the election," she said.

Hamilton first captured headlines across the province when she publicly defended Brandon West Liberal Billy Moore for saying hospitals should be closed to help reduce emergency room wait times. He later retracted his comments.

"We both care about prevention, and I think that's what's being missed here," said Hamilton, who was a healthy living facilitator before becoming a politician. "We have to look at the other aspects of health care, and that is keeping people well, out of hospitals."

The Liberals have repeatedly called out PC Leader Brian Pallister for skipping debates, but Hamilton herself has not been to every debate she's been invited to. She said it's unfair to draw aparallel.

"Brian has had a lot of time to organize and campaign and so I don't think you can compare a leader of a party to me in Brandon East. He's been campaigning and organizing for years," she said.