Green Party of Canada nibbles away at Liberal support, poll suggests

A new poll of federal voting intentions in Manitoba might prompt Liberal candidates to see Green in their rear-view mirrors.

The Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press has the federal Green Party edging into double-digit support(13 per cent) among decided and leaning voters.

Canadians will vote for a new federal government on Oct. 21.

Probe Research partner Curtis Brown says the bump in support for the Greens comes at the expense of the governing Liberal Party.

"That is a bit of a troubling trend for the Liberals when they have to defend so many seats, especially in Winnipeg. They certainly took a hit after some of the SNC Lavalin issues [and] some of the other things that have accumulated around being in power for a few years," Brown said.

Liberal support was at 24 per cent among those polled, while the NDP was at 17 per cent.

The Conservatives have by far the strongest showing in the Probe poll, with 43 per cent of decided and leaning voters.

Green Partyinroads on Liberal supportcould benefit the Tories on election day, Brown said.

"I think that's the natural thing to conclude. If the Liberal number, which was pushed up quite a bit [in the last election], has now migrated elsewhere and the Conservative numbers still seemto be steady, in fact up slightly in Winnipeg, they are going to be the natural beneficiaries," Brown said.

The uptick in support for the Green Party won't necessarily translate into a first-ever Green seat from Manitoba in Parliament, but it should cause even the most comfortable or high-profile Liberal MPs to be concerned, he said.

"Yeh, I think if you are any incumbent Liberal MP, you are going to be trying to work pretty hard this summer to turn this around."

Probe surveyed 1,000 adults living in Manitoba from June 4 to 17,and cansay with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed.

The poll was done using random digit dialling, with respondents being asked,"The next federal election will happen this coming October 2019. Which party's candidate are you most likely to support in the next federal election?"