Waterloo researchers' math model could help guide Ontario's reopening plans

A team of researchers at the University of Waterloo have received provincial funding to create a mathematical model that will aidin thecreation of possible strategies to reopen the economy without the resurgence of COVID-19.

Premier Doug Ford announced a second round of research projects on July 17 during a stop in Kitchener. The projectsarepart of a$20 million Ontario COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund thataims to find ways to prevent, detect and treat COVID-19.

Lead researcher and professor of applied mathematics Chris Bauch saidthey will be combining different data from the province'sCOVID-19 notifications, local healthunits andavailable demographic and epidemiological data to build the model.

"[The model] kind of gives you ways of comparing what would happen if you tried different things and that gives you some guidance in which strategies to actually implement," he said.

"Let's suppose you want to reopen or reclose the entire province all at once, versus a region by region approach, you can compare the projections of how many cases you can get under those two different scenarios."

Bauchsaid he and his team have worked on similar mathematical models in the past with outbreaks like SARS in the early 2000s.

He adds the modelcould also be used to provide other information, such as caregiver to child ratios in childcare centres, different testing protocols or who would need to bevaccinated once a vaccine becomes available.

"The problem won't be finding what questions to address, it'll be trying to decide what ones we want to focus on," he said.

"The big paradox with this pandemic is that we don't have any other example to go by. Because there is so little historical precedent, these models can help us understand ... exactly why we are doing this and the benefits of these measures."