Kitchener Centre is a 'bellwether' for provincial election

IfOntarianswant to get an idea of who might next lead the province, they should look to the Kitchener-Centre riding, according to Barry Kay, a political science professoratWilfridLaurierUniversity in Waterloo.

"Kitchener Centre is actually a greatbellwethergenerally. It's almost always on the side of the party that wins Ontario, both federally and provincially," said Kay in an interview with Craig Norris onThe Morning EditionThursday.

The trend goes back over20 years, according to Kay.

"I think Kitchener Centre is just sort ofrepresentative ofthe middle point of Ontario. It's not nearly as urbanized and liberal," said Kay. "It has some of the components that thebig cities Toronto and Hamilton have, but not to the same degree."

At the same time,"it's not nearly as traditional as some of the smallerridings, by smaller I mean smaller populations, in Oxford County and inLambtonand so forth," said Kay.

"It's not always exactlythe middle, but it's usually pretty close."

Kay works with theLaurierInstitute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The group is monitoringpolls and creating seat projections during the Ontario provincial election.

"The polls actuallyhave been all over the place, to me that's one of the big stories of this election campaign.What we've seen is kind of a bi-modal distribution, some polls show the Conservatives with a substantial lead, other polls show the Liberals with a substantial lead. When you put them all together, in fact, it's a virtual tie," said Kay.

As for the NDP, Kay says that the party is in "atrap."

"TheNDPhas had enormous influence in this past legislature, they were really the hammer that was pushing the Wynne government's policies. However, once we get into the electoral context, they're sortof seen as the third party again," said Kay.

"It's natural in a three-party context, where nobody has a majority, for the third party to get more blame than credit for what's going on. People who like the policies of the government that they were influencing aren't giving themcredit for it and people who are hostile to them, blame them."