Care, cuts and cynicism in Ontario politics: Robert Fisher

The provincial election may come down to whether voters want a deficit and money for healthcare or if they want cuts,Queen's Park analyst Rober Fisher explains.

Listen to hisfull interview with CBC'sCraig Norrisby clicking the play buttonor read an edited and abridged transcript below.

Robert Fisher, Ontario politics analyst

This week's throne speech promised more money for health care, addictions and mental health. Why do you think the Liberals are focused on these areas?

Though I suspect the Liberals would probably admit privately they've got their own polling backing this up, that Ontarians will accept the up to $8 billion potential deficit in next week's budget in exchange for almost anything that ends in the word "care," health care, home care, child care, mental health care, pharmacare, dental care. I think there was something like 35 references to the word "care" in the throne speech.

They're gambling that these promises won't be seen as too much, too late, to kind of re-work the old line about too little too late.

Doug Ford has been PC leader for about two weeks. He's talking about cuts and efficiencies at Queen's Park, but says he won't cut jobs.How's this being received?

I think it's playing fairly well for Mr. Ford. People are listening and they're hearing efficiencies. They're not hearing the word "cuts" and I think that obviously he and the Conservative party are well aware of what happened in 2014 [when] Tim Hudak late in the campaign promised to cut 100,000 public sector jobs and that really sort of shook the electorate, and I think in many ways probably cost the Tories yet another election.

Even without the detail out there, my sense is that Mr. Ford continues to pick up support. He continues to pick up momentum as we approach the official start of the election campaign, but people would be forgiven for thinking that it's already underway.

Another leader advocating for health care is NDP leader, Andrea Horwath. She's announced a dental plan. How much traction is that getting?

I'm sure it caused a lot of people to take a second look at Ms. Horwath. I'm sure that some of their polling probably indicates there's been some traction to that. It's just for her, and by the way, she's promising a fully-costed election platform to come, and I suspect, a lot more promises.

It's just that in baseball terms every time she hits one to left field, there's Kathleen Wynne to catch it and turn it around to try to make a double play for her team.

If you take a look a pharmacare for example, it was the NDP first out of the gate with that. A plan for everybody in Ontario and the Liberal's initial response was a plan that called for coverage for young people up to 24-and-under and now to compete for the progressive vote [that] is clearly out there and looking perhaps for a place to vote on June 7, the Liberals too are promising to expand eligibility.

Taken together [with] what we've seen so far in this unofficial start to the campaign is Ms. Wynne and Ms. Horwath have become what I call the "care bears" of Ontario politics, and they're trying to portray Doug Ford as the big bad wolf.

You've covered a few elections, do you think that's the big question for voters this time around, care or cuts?

I think it really has come down to that. I think to a certain extent that's exactly what the message is out there. From the NDP and the Liberals you'll have them saying, look, if you want to protect or expand programs you think, we think that are important, then we're the people to vote for.

I think as well there's a growing cynicism out there about all these promises. The public polling would indicate if it's an accurate reflection of how Ontarians are feeling. Maybe this stuff from the Liberals for example will be seen as the Hail Mary of all political passes.

I was in Kitchener Tuesday night at a pre-election event organized by Laurier Centre for Public Ethics, at which I was honoured to have been the guest speaker. My sense is from the audience there, and these were highly educated, highly engaged people, that there's growing cynicism too about Mr. Ford and a concern about that about what he has not been saying in this election campaign.

I think it's kind of a two-edged sword here, though perhaps more heavily weighted towards the Liberals at this point and the polling out there could all change in an election campaign. People forget that sometimes an election campaign begins one way and ends quite a different way.

The provincial budget is next Wednesday, what do you think we're going to see from that. How do you think the opposition parties are going to respond?

It's going to be all about the dollars and cents of the government's agenda. I don't want to sound cynical myself here, but you know there's going to be rosy forecasts from the finance minister about the economy. There's going to be lots of spin about the government how it has, is, and will respond to people's needs.

If past practice follows, there's likely to be a roll out of some other big promise. They'll be lots of Liberal applause and a standing ovation for the minister at the end of the speech, but amid all of that, and the handshakes and the pats on the back, and the smiles, I think Liberals are going to be wondering if they're going to be around to see another Liberal budget.