'Dead heat' in mayoral race between Fred Eisenberger and Vito Sgro: Forum poll

A new Forum Research poll suggestsHamilton's mayoral race is a virtual tie, with incumbent Fred Eisenbergerholdinga mere one-per cent lead over anti-LRT challenger Vito Sgro.

Forum did a robocall of 1,556 residents, most reached by landline. Results showed Eisenberger with 39 per cent of the support of respondents andSgro with 38 per cent. Four per cent responded with George Rusichwhile 12 per cent were undecided and 7 per cent mentioned "another candidate."

We have our numbers. We are where we need to be.- Fred Eisenberger

While Eisenbergerbuilt his platform on his record, jobs and the economy, Sgro has largely run on halting a $1 billion light rail transit (LRT) project and using the money for infrastructure.

"After all this time, Hamilton remains evenly divided over theLRT.That division has created a dead heat in the race for mayor," said LorneBozinoff, president of Forum Research.

The poll showed respondentsare equally divided on LRT. Half said they opposethe project. Forty-six per cent supportit.

One-third of respondents said LRT was the top issue that would influence their vote. Seventeen per cent chose taxes, 15 per cent infrastructure and roads and nine per cent public safety.

Of undecided voters, one in five said they would choose Eisenberger. Half of the undecidedsaid they weren't leaning towardsany candidate yet, with20 per cent leaning towardEisenbergerand 17 per cent towardSgro. Nine per cent of the undecided said they were leaning toward "another candidate."

The Forum poll also said that half of the people who responded don't support the plan to build light rail transit (LRT). Thirty per cent said they strongly supported LRTwhile another 16 per cent "somewhat supported" the plan. Nineteen per cent said they werestrongly against the plan and 31 per cent said they were against the plan.

Most voters, according to the poll, were"absolutely certain" they would vote in Monday's election. Seventy-eightper cent said they were positive, or "absolutely certain, barring an unforeseen emergency," they were voting.

CBCNews is seeking comment from Sgro. Eisenberger said Friday that he's not concerned.

"I love Poles," he joked at a media event. "I love Scandinavians, Italians. I love the Dutch, the Scotch, the Irish. I think all of them are going to come out on Monday and support me because I think they understand this is about moving our city forward.

"We have our numbers. We are where we need to be. I'm looking forward to Monday all those great people coming out to support my mayorship."

Forum Research wasn't paid for the poll.The margin of error is 2.48 per cent.

PeterGraefe, a McMaster University political science professor, said he was one of the respondents to the poll.

He noted there are still lots of questions about just how reliable polling can be in terms of predicting the actual outcome of an election especially if only one poll has been published publicly.

"We have a right to be a bit skeptical about how good those numbers are without some sort of stand up comparators where we can see, Ok, with a different methodology did they come up with more or less the same numbers or do we see significant differences?"

CBC'spoll analyst, Eric Grenier, shared Graefe'scall for caution, but said Forum's polls tend to be solid around election time.

He added the fact that Forum's poll is the only one made public so far actually makes him feel a "bit more confident" about the results because they'd have to be sure of their numbers to put something out without anything for reference.

"There's no goal post, nothing to tell you if you're out on a limb or even in the right ballpark," Grenierexplained.

That said, he pointed out municipal elections are notoriously tough to poll accurately because the opinion's expressed by the general public who are contacted often differ from those of people who actually get out and vote.

Either way, the political scientists said the poll is sure to be fodder for those pushing people to get out and cast their ballot because "every vote counts."