Alberta Premier Jason Kenney starts second year in office dealing with 3 crises

Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative caucus were elected on a platform of jobs, economy and pipelines.

Yetas he starts his second year as premier of Alberta,the agenda Kenney was elected on has been pushed aside by three crises flooding in Fort McMurray, the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic impact of negative oil prices.

A year to the day after he and his cabinet were sworn in, we take a look at what we've learned about Kenney's governing style, the majority government's successes and failures, the effectiveness of his cabinet, and how the current crises could force the province to change direction.

Governance style

Kenney's style as premier is very top-down, with much of the messaging and decision-making centralized in his office.

Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said Kenney's style is similar to what he may have experienced as a cabinet minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper.

"Cabinet ministers have had relatively little autonomy," she said. "There is a sense that orders go out from the centre."

Young acknowledges this may have been a necessary choice for Kenney, as he has a large number of political rookies in cabinet. But it could also be a matter of preference.

For example, Tanya Fir, Kenney's economic development minister, is rarely seen at press conferences, a notable change from the previous NDP government, in whichDeron Bilous had a higher profile in the same portfolio.

With the exception of a trip to Japan and South Korea last June, Fir hasn't led the notable international trade trips for this government.

Instead, Kenney's principal adviser, David Knight Legg, visited London and New York City on behalf of the government, trips that were followed up with travel by Kenney.

The tone of how the government and its staff interactwith its perceived opponents be it NDP MLAs, union leaders, or ordinary Albertans has been the subject of much discussion since Kenney took office.

Laurie Adkin, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, calls Kenney the "most ideological premier" in Alberta's history, and said his government has embraced a more authoritarian and secretive style of governing.

As examples, Adkin points to the creation of the Canadian Energy Centre, also known as the "war room," and the public inquiry into alleged foreign funding of the Canadian environmental movement.

"They have taken the view that if you question the government's line on energy or climate policy, you're not Albertan, and this is a very worrying thing," she said.

"This is not a legitimate way of engaging in policy debate. You're supposed to be able to have disagreements about the right way to go without being accused of being an enemy of the people."

Cabinet

Kenney appointed 20 ministers and three associate ministers to his cabinet. Two of his ministers have borne the majority of public criticism Education Minister Adriana LaGrange and Health Minister Tyler Shandro.

LaGrange faced a trial by fire early in the government's mandate over a rollback in privacy for students in gay-straight alliances in Bill 8.

The former school board trustee and rookie MLA from Red Deer found herself in the centre of attacks by the oppositionand heated news conferences with reporters.

Shandro is facing calls for his resignation over misstepsin the current pay dispute with Alberta Medical Association, which has caused dozens of rural physicians to announce intentions togive up their hospital privileges so they can sustain their medical clinics.

Young suggested the pandemicoffered Shandro a chance for a do-over.

"The pandemic came along at a moment where Shandro, with the premier's permission, could have backed away from the disaster," Young said.

"They would have had a chance to figure out if there was some different way to achieve their fiscal goals without shedding doctors from rural areas. ... But he chose not to."

Young thinks Finance Minister Travis Toews has been the best performer in cabinet, as he has largely been gaffe-free and has effectively fronted the austerity agenda of Kenney's government.

As minister of energy, lawyer and former Enbridge executive Sonya Savage could be the most powerful member of cabinet, Adkin said.

"We don't really see a lot of her because Kenney does all the talking on energy policy," she said.

Successes

Young said Kenney has successfully sustained thedelicate balance between maintaining a relationship with the federal Liberal government which recently provided$1.7 billion to clean up orphan wells while keeping Wexit, the western exit from Canada movement, in check.

"[The UCP is]in this precarious position where they have to acknowledge the frustrations and the inclinations of people on the right flank without losing the centre," she said.

Kenney's decision to appoint a panel to hear public submissions on a "fair deal" for Alberta within Confederation was a way to cool an issue that flared up after the Liberals were able to hang on to government in the October federal election.

"I think the pandemic, again, gives them a brilliant opportunity to sort of receive the report, put it on a shelf and let it stay there," Youngsaid.

Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, wasn't willing to weigh in on what he thought was the government's "best"economic policy, but instead offered thoughts on the most consequential.

The phased, three-year reduction, that will bring the tax rate paid by large corporations from 12 to eight per cent, is a significant changeparticularly when increases tend to be more popular with the public, Tombe said.

Tombe said cuts to business taxes tend to take longer to have an effect on investment.

"We shouldn't be under the impression that anything the UCP government did in its first year is going to have large immediate implications for growth or job creation," he said.

Adkin said the government likely sees Kenney's coalition with other conservative premiers as progress, but she isn't sure how it will benefit Albertans in the long term.

Failures

Kenney and his caucus have faced a number of controversies during their year in office. Theseinclude the rough start of the Canadian Energy Centre, the ongoing RCMP investigation into alleged voter fraud during Kenney's leadership bid, and the firing of Elections Commissioner Lorne Gibson.

Two larger issues have overshadowed Kenney's first year in government, according to Young his outright rejection of anything to do with green energy, and the current battle with the Alberta Medical Association.

"Walking into a pandemic at war with the doctors was, I think, a terrible failure, and one that is going to haunt them for the rest oftheir mandate," she said.

Kenney's continued aversion to increasingtax revenue rather than cut frontline services is a problem, Adkin said, as are his efforts to double-down on oil and gas and cutthe previous government's climate leadership plan.

She is also critical of his battles with public sector workers, pitting them against workers from the private sector.

"(It's) just a really old game in Alberta," Adkin said. "Ralph Klein did the same thing."

Tombe wonders why Kenney felt it was necessary to invest $7.5 billion of public money and loan guarantees in the Keystone XL pipeline project.

Unlike the Trans Mountain expansion, Keystone didn't have a company pulling out of the project, putting its entire fate in question.

"Keystone didn't have that same kind of risk, and the risk that it does face is not something that's under the control of any particular Canadian government," he said.

What happens in Year 2

Kenney is in the thick of dealing with Fort McMurray flooding, the COVID-19 pandemic and the crash in the price of oil. In his televised address on April 7, he warned the province's deficit could jump this year from $7 billion to $20 billion.

The pandemic, in particular, is a once-in-a-lifetime crisis that has prompted governments to spend billions to help people who have lost their livelihoods due to the shutdown of businesses, public facilities and large-scale events.

How Kenney responds, particularly when the crisis has waned, will be telling.

"Do we see fiscal restraint that is much larger than what they were originally planning?" Tombe asked."Do we see potentially conversations around changes on the revenue side of the budget, which is very different than what prior plans were of the government?

"Or do we see that just we accept that there are higher debt levels and we proceed going forward, without much dramatic change in fiscal policy."