Calgary byelection results show 'small-c' conservative sentiments

This week's byelection in Calgary-Foothills shows the city's "small-c" conservative heart is still very much beating.

The map of provincial ridings in Calgary may still be mostly NDP orange, but given the New Democrats threw everything they had to bring Foothills into the foldand still fell shortthere's a message about just how hard the four-month-old dynasty-ending government will need to work to keep those seats.

There are only a handful of well-known NDPers in the city andBob Hawkesworth is part of that small group.

Yetwiththat recognition, an airlift of experienced campaigners from Edmonton, and even Premier Rachel Notley spending some political capital by going door-to-door with Hawkesworth, the NDP didn't win.

It improved its showing over a paltry 3.75 per cent of the votein a byelection last October.

But the NDP pulled in 32 per centof the vote running against Jim Prentice just a few months ago, so observers could be forgiven if they feel the orange wave has receded with Thursday's 26 per centtally.

Bad optics

While finishing second can be easily dismissed by the NDP (and it was), it provides some bad opticsfor the government.

Voters in this northwest riding were given a chance to have an experienced NDP player enter the government caucus and possibly the cabinet,or they could send a message with a political newcomer.

The majority of the 39 per centwho bothered to vote opted for the latter.Given the economic news of late, it shouldn't be a surprise.

Less than a year ago, I went door-knocking in this riding with then premier and PC candidate Jim Prentice.

• Jim Prentice absence from Calgary-Foothills debate disappoints organizer

Once they recovered from the shock of seeing the premier on their own doorstep, a good number of Foothills voters candidly told Prentice what was on their minds. The economy, and specifically the challenges that were starting to face the energy industry, were front and centre.

So in a week where hundreds of Calgarians lost well-paying energy jobs, and Finance Minister Joe Ceci announced Alberta is heading for a $5.9 billion deficit, most voters in Foothills seem a bit cranky with their new government.

Those events taking place just days prior to the byelection didn't help the NDP's chances. This was perhaps compounded in the minds of some voters because while it's promising action on the economy, the government's first budget and a vaunted jobs creation plan won't be rolled out until late October.

Wildrose smiles

The two guys with the big smiles on election night are also a big part of thisbyelection story.

MLA-elect Prasad Panda gets his wish: a seat in the legislature. He's absorbed two election losses for the Wildrose in the past, so for an oil and gas guyhe's stoked to be leaving the patch for a new jobin politics.

Wildrose leader Brian Jean is also grinning because his rural-dominated caucus gets an urban MLA. He's also feeling sure that his party is supplanting the PCs as the choice for conservative-minded voters.

For the first time since 1971, Foothills will not have a PC MLA at the legislature and Jean says that's significant.

"I don't think they've ever placed under 40 per centin this riding," said Jean. "It's the strongest riding they have in Alberta and they've lost it. I think it clearly indicates where Albertans are going and they're going towards a Wildrose future."

In fact, the only time before last night the PCs did finish under 40 per centwas in the 1989 election, a night where even the unpopular premier of the day, Don Getty, lost his Edmonton riding even if his party did win a majority.

Whither the PCs?

The PCs finished third on Thursday, with a respectable 21.59 per centshowing. But that's a huge drop from itsdynasty days when scoring more than 50 per centwas routine.

The results seem to indicate an NDP government has been a revitalizing tonic for the Wildrose. It's one thing to attack the stacked baggage of a PC dynasty, but ideologically speaking, it's quite another to attack this rookie NDP government.For this "true blue"conservative party, attacking the NDP is like shooting fish in a barrel.

There wasn't even a contested PC nomination here and Wildrose showed it can win without the need for a unite the rightmovement. That's a worrying sign for the Tories who were sent to the penalty box by voters last spring. The battle back to respectability may be a long one. Conversely, given the party's lack of a permanent leader and dire financial situation, a glass half-full person would probably lookat this finish and mutterthatit could have been worse.

Just prior to the byelection, PC candidate Blair Houston held a news conference in his campaign office which was located well outside the Foothills riding. There were dozens of Houston's campaign signs in the office. For a party lacking cash, the fact those signs were made but never pounded into lawns, or even boulevards, in Foothills is a different kind of sign for the PCs.

Also-rans

Left wanderingin the political wilderness are the Alberta Liberals, which placed fourth,and the Alberta Party in fifth place. Both get points for trying, butsingle-digit support levels mean their attempts to build on one-seat beach-heads in Calgary aren't resonating with voters.

For the also-rans in this race, the next provincial vote must truly seem to be a lifetime away.

For the NDP, it's amatter of what might have been,for it could have had an experienced politician join its ranks.

Instead, the Official Opposition gains a seat, which isn't bad for a Wildrose Party that many had given up for dead after previous leader Danielle Smith and most of her caucus jumped to the PC government last year.

As that event and recent votes show, things can and do change quickly in politics.