Alberta economy still the best in Canada by some measures

If it wasn't for the bad news,there wouldn't be much news at all when it comes to Alberta's economy these days.

Just this week TD Bank declared the province was in the midst of its longest, deepest, recession everand, to be perfectly clear, it is.

Albertahas been sputtering since the price of oil began to plungetwo years ago. The result has been a projected drop in GDP of 6.5 per cent since 2014.

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Add to that an unemployment rate hovering around 8 per cent and there is no question that Alberta is experiencing tough times.

But dig a little deeper and two years in to this downturnthere are more than a fewsigns of life inAlberta's economy.

The sparkling new River condominium complex sitson the southern bankof the Elbow River, which meanderspast the affluent neighbourhoodsof Elbow Park and Roxboroonthe southern edge of Calgary's downtown.

Anne Clarke's heels click on theimported hardwood floors as the Sotheby's realestate associateshows off the high end featuresof a5,000-square-footluxury condominium, which include city andmountain views,directelevator access and a 24-hour concierge.

Of course, this kind of luxury doesn't come cheap. The asking price for this suite was nearly $8.4 million, ahefty price tagin a cityembroiledin a recession.

But this unit is already off the market, sold this week for the asking price,the highest sale price for a condo in Calgary in three years.

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"We are starting to see a lot more optimism and so I think that what this shows is confidence in our market,"Clarke says. She believes the confidence comesin partfrom the fact that home prices have not plummeted here, despite the downturn in the energy sector.

It is afar cry from theearly 1980s, when the last prolonged recession here sawthe bottom fall out of real estate prices.

Clarke says thatdespite the two years oflayoffs that have gutted many of the oil and gas towers in downtown Calgary, all but two of the units in this building have beensold.

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"When we first started the project, we just assumed that it would mostly be oil and gas and that is not the case and that is the point.Calgary is well diversified."

Calgary is well diversified.Anne Clarke,Sotheby's real estate associate

About 20 blocks away in Calgary's booming east end you can find evidence of that diversity.

Cranes dot the skyline as new condo towersspring up around this once gritty neighbourhood, now the home of Canada's National Music Centre and the future home of the city's state of the art library.

Standing in the midst of his newly renovated office space, Bryan de Lottinvilleis struggling to stay on top of his company Benevity's rapid growth.

"It's been crazy but crazy good. This is our third space in the last two years and we are trying to find a larger one to anticipate our continued growth."

Benevityprovides software to major corporations from Apple to Google, that helps those companies and their employees give to charity.

De Lottinville says that even during the downturn his business is on the upswing, growing its revenue by about 150 per cent a yearover the last four years.

"We had 13 people when we won Nike in 2013; we have 260 now. I think we hired 180 people last year alone, so there has been a lot of growth."

Of course those hires pale in comparison to the more than 40,000 jobs lost in the energy sector since 2014. But despite those losses,Alberta's unemployment rate of about8per cent issignificantlybetterthan duringthe early '80s.

Less focus on oil and gas

De Lottinville believes that at least part of the reason for the better unemployment rate this timeis that Alberta's economy is not as focused on oil and gas production.

"There is a growing list of technology companies and other successful non-energy endeavours in thiscity."

Hesays that a feeling of optimism and vibrancy persists in Calgary outside the energy sector, "Even out and about at restaurants and retail environments and in the real estate sector there seems to be a lot of activity."

Retail spending dipped by almost 3percent in Alberta during the second quarter of 2016, but some retailers are still seeing growth.

Vancouver based MEC, formerly Mountain Equipment Co-Op, announced this week that it willopentwo new outlets in Calgary.MEC'sJerry McGillivraysays the move isrooted in strong sales here.

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"For us the timing is really good, if you look at the Alberta retail market our MEC locations both in Edmonton and Calgary are faring much better than your typical retailer, for sure."

McGillivray says sales in the company's camping, cycling and canoeing areas are all up in Alberta this year and he saysMEC sees a bright future in Alberta.

He may have a point.

Despite the hard times Albertans still earn far more than most Canadians, with Alberta's percapita GDP sitting at around $77,000compared with about $53,000 for the rest of the country.

It is just one reason why University of Calgary economistTrevor Tombe saysAlberta could still be Canada's best economy.

'We have a higher fraction of our population employed than any other province our earnings are much higher than any other province."Trevor Tombe,University of Calgary economist

"In many ways we are still the strongest economy in the country, we have a higher fraction of our population employed than any other province our earnings are much higher than any other province even today, so it is important not to lose that perspective."

Of course that is cold comfort for the tens of thousands of Albertans leftunemployed by the downturn. But Tombe saysAlberta's economy is more diversified than most think, with fewer than sixper cent of workers being directlyemployed by the oil and gas sector.

And Tombe says that the number of people working in other sectors is growing as employment in oil and gas shrinks.

"Service sectors, health care, education professional and scientific servicestheseare areas that are increasing their employment, so it is in areas like that where we are seeing a lot of the growth."

There is no doubt that Alberta has been battered by a harsh economic climate over the last two years but many believe that the worst of this latest downturn is likely behind the province.

In the end the silver lining to Alberta's longest and deepest recession ever, could be less about the damage done and more abouthow well the province has weathered thatstorm.

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