Trudeau unlikely to change voting system, say political scientists

Prime minister-designateJustin Trudeau may have campaignedon electoral change, but political scientistssay he may want to rethinkthat promise now he has a majority government.

The "first-past-the-post" system Canada currently useshas been criticized by voters and politicians alike for years.

In recent months, Trudeau promised 2015 would bethe last federal electionwhere the number of seats wins, as opposed tothe percentage of the popular vote.

But that was beforeTrudeau'slandslide win.

• Justin Trudeau's Liberals to form majority government
• Justin Trudeau vows to end first-past-the-post voting

UBC political science professor Max Cameron says the Liberal majority is a direct consequence of the way Canada's electoral system works.

"A majority, I think, in an interesting way gives the Liberals the means to make change but paradoxically, at least in this respect, diminishes their motivation," said Cameron at a UBC roundtable on the federal election results.

"It gives them many, many more seats than they got in terms of percentage of the popular vote. In some sense, they've got not a lot to gain from changing the current system."

The Liberals won less than 40 per cent of the popular vote but 54 per cent of the seats.

Cameron says if seats were allocated in proportion to votes, the Liberals would have won closer to 135 seats instead of 184.

'Moral imperativeto fix system'

Political sciencePhD candidate David Moscrop says he thinks the Liberals owe it to their supporters to try to fix the system.

"I think the Liberals have a moral imperative to pursue it now," he said."They said it at the start. They were very clear. They attached a timeline of 18 months."

Inboth British Columbia and Ontario, a citizens' assemblyon electoral reform has alreadyinvestigated changes to the provincial electoral systems.

• Pros and cons of Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system

Cameron says the Liberals could draw lessons from those about the best way to proceed with change.

Electoral change doesn't require constitutional change but there needs to be public support.

In both provinces, the Citizens' Assembly proposed replacing the province's existing first-past-the-postsystem each with different plans but voters rejected the ideas.

Chance for something innovative?

UBC political science professor Richard Johnston is extremely skeptical about the likelihood of any federal electoral change under the Liberals.

He says, B.C. and Ontario made "recommendations for proportional representation but, in the end, we have the same electoral system as before."

The Liberal Party of Canada has not indicated what type of proportional representation it would want,but Cameron says there's a real opportunity for Canada to do something innovative.

He also says, "opposition parties tend to talk a lot about democratic reform when they're in opposition and rarely deliver once in government."

In his victory speech highlighting most of his campaign promises, Trudeau didn't mention proportional representation.

However, when asked about the issue by a francophone journalist in a newsconference the day after the election, he responded, in French, saying the Liberals had committed to making thisthe last election to use first-past-the-post.

Headdedthere was much work to do, consulting Canadians and examining the issue.