TransLink doesn't need a bailout, it needs life support

TransLink is in serious trouble.

Our public transit authority is losing $75 million every month. Ridership is down 83 per cent. Revenue from parking fees and gas taxeshastaken a hit. Bus fares have been waived since the decision to only allow rear-door boardings.

These revenue streams typically make up more than half of TransLink's operating budget; now they're barely a trickle.

As a result, TransLink is making huge cuts to service. SkyTrain frequency was reduced 15-40 per centlast week. Similar reductions are planned for the West Coast Express and SeaBus. Eighteen bus routes were suspendedand another 47 will follow by mid-May.

Of course, most industries are taking a huge hit due to the COVID-19pandemic. Airlines are hurting badly. Theatres, venuesand stadiums have closed indefinitely.

However, there are few alternatives that could replace the speed of flying or the thrill of a live event;people will take flights and go to shows again. These industries, like many others, will recover.

Transit is a different story. As we flatten the curve and heal from COVID-19, many people will have a very viable alternative to taking transit:driving.

How pandemics affected transit in China

In 2003, amid growing fears around the unfolding SARS epidemic, commuters in China purchased cars (and bicycles) in record numbers, with car sales rising 75 per centin 2003 compared to 2002, according to consultancy firm Bain & Company.

A report by Kotak Mahindra Bank attributedthis purchasing spree to "fear of being infected with SARS while using public transport" a sentiment echoed in reports by the New York Timesand Reuters in addition to a "sharp cut in prices" caused by foreign automakers increasing competition in the local market.

During this time, transit use plummeted and struggled to recover, even as SARS cases dropped to zero. (In Beijing today, the public bus system still has fewer riders than before the SARS epidemic, according to a paper by a faculty member and students atTsinghua University's Institute of Transportation though this can be partly explained by growing car useandhuge subway expansions.)

Nowthis story appears to be repeating itself. As cities in China recover from COVID-19, traffic congestion on highways has actually rebounded to levels higher than the previous year and car manufacturers in Wuhan have reported a "boom"in sales,according to Bloomberg.

That rebound may have come at the cost of transit ridership. Before the pandemic, 40 per centof residents took public transit in Beijing, according to the U.S.-based Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. Today, as the city recovers, the share of transit users has dropped to just 24 per cent.

What to expect in North America

A similar story is likely to unfold in North America, but with much harsher consequences. Even before the pandemic, public transit systems were facing challenges:Transit ridership has steadily declined in the U.S. since 2014, with Bloomberg reporting a slight increase between 2018 and 2019, led by improvements in New York and Washington, D.C.

For struggling transit systems, the pandemic will be more than a major setback, it could be a death sentence.

In Metro Vancouver, we are lucky enough to have a robust transit system that has grown its ridership year after year. However, we're far from immune to a pandemic-driven transit crisis.

Much of our ridership has been earned through decades of public investment that gradually shifted our population out of cars. In 1991, just nine per centof people in Metro Vancouver took transit, while 83 per centdrove. In the last census, before the COVID-19 crisis, 20 per centof people took transitwhile 65 per centdrove.

That is a huge accomplishment. We've convinced many peoplewho could very well afford to driveto take transit.

However, the pandemic threatens to reverse decades of progress. Those who can afford tomay completely abandon transit and drive for the foreseeable future. Those who can't typically low-income earners, the elderly, youth and racialized communitieswill face a skeleton of a transit system, ultimately widening societal inequities.

TransLink's crisis will reverberate long after the pandemic. It willneed to convince the public that transit is safe to use. But more than that, it willneed sustained government support for a very long time.

To hear Uytae Lee share his point of view on CBC'sThe Early Edition, tap the audio link below:

Uytae Lee is a columnist for CBC's The Early Edition and producer for About Here, a YouTube channel focused on urban planning issues in Vancouver.

Petros Kusmu is a Vancouver-based management consultant focused on public sector transformations and an occasional panelist for CBC News and The National.

Both Lee and Kusmu are World Economic Forum Global Shapers.