'The writing's on the wall': Streaming services like Netflix set to overtake cable TV

Within two years, streaming services like Netflix will be more popular in Canada than cable TV, a new reportsuggests.

By the end of 2020, 10.6 million Canadian households will be signed up with streaming services, market research firm Convergence Research Group forecasts.That's four per cent higher than the projected 10.2 million who willhavetraditional TV subscriptions.

"It's kind of the calm before the storm," said ConvergencepresidentBrahm Eiley.

He says Netflix's surging subscriber numbers,coupled with new streaming service competitors, such as Amazon Prime Video, will help drive a fundamental shift in Canadian viewing habits, moving them from cable to online.

"The numbers are so big nowthat it really is happening," he said. "The writing's on the wall."

The report found about a two per cent decline in Canadian television subscribers in both 2016 and 2017, and forecasts a further annual average decline of 2.6 per cent through to2020.

Meanwhile, 24 per cent morehouseholds signed up for streaming services in 2017compared to the previous year.

Netflix had the lion's share of subscribers, followed by Amazon and Bell's CraveTV.

The numbers are no surprise to industry expert Irene Berkowitz, whobelieves traditional TV's decline is inevitable, fuelled by a demand for generally cheaper and more convenient streaming services.

"It's a consumer-driven disruption," said Berkowitz, an instructor at Toronto'sRyerson University. "[Traditional TV] is clunky, it's infuriating and it feels like a horse and buggy or an electric typewriter."

The Netflix factor

Meanwhile, Netflix continues to up its game, adding more shows to its Canadian content library and creating original series.

As a result, Eiley says the number ofCanadian Netflix subscribers hastripled in the past five years to 6.4 million. He predicts itwill continue to grow to the point where,in six years, more Canadians will be signed up with the servicethan with traditional TVpackages.

"Netflix alone is, really,it's a beastI don't know how else to describe it."

Competitors are also moving into the Canadian marketplace, which will help drive up streaming subscriptions.

Amazon Prime Video launched in Canada in late 2016and continues to beef up its Canadian content.

Other recent arrivals include sports-focusedRogers'Sportsnet NOW andDAZN, as well asBritBox,which offers British programming. This past week, CBS launched a Canadian version of its All Access streaming app. Apple is also expected to soon launch its own streaming service.

"It just takes more content being made available this way and Canadians will consume it,especially if it's priced correctly," said Eiley.

Shelly MacMillansays she didn't consider cutting her cable until her cablebox conked out this pastDecember.

"I started to look at my bill and I thought, 'You watch two channels that you like on cable:should you be paying $80 a month for that?' I really started to question it."

As an experiment,the Edmonton womansigned up with Netflix at a cost of $9.99 a month. She says she found it easy to use and was impressed bythe service'sbig assortment of shows, including documentaries and British comedies.

"Within two days, I was hooked," said MacMillan. She promptly cancelled her TV subscription.

"I just don't see [cable] surviving."

Is cable dead?

Even with the shift to streaming, Eiley says the demise of traditional TV will take decades, as many Canadians are still wedded to their television subscriptions for now.

David Sheard,ofIngersoll, Ont., subscribes to both Netflix and cable. He considered cutting the cord, buthasn't done it yet because he doesn't want to lose access to livesports and news."There's certain things that you cannot get any other way."

Sheard says he'll be ready to make the move when Canada offers live streaming services currently only available in the U.S., such as Sling orYouTube TV.

"The Americans, you look how many services they have down there, and we really don't have [that]," he said.

That's slowly changing as more streaming services make their way to Canada.

"It's not going backwards," said Berkowitz. "[TV] remotes will be ancient history."

But it's not all doom and gloom for traditional TVproviders, becausethey also offer home internet. As more Canadians sign up for streaming services, they'll require faster, more expensive internet connections.

The Convergence report forecasts that Canadian home internet revenueswill grow to $8.7 billion this year, surpassing TV subscription revenues for the first time.

That's no surprise to Sheard, whose internet bill recently went up by $8 a month.

"They're going to do it, because they know more people are streaming," he said.