Bitcoin's move to mainstream carries new financial risks: Don Pittis

Investing often descends into a kind ofimmoderate zeal, butthere are signsthedigital currencycraze has the potential to threaten the wider global economy if left unchecked.

Just as we've seen with the current passion for bitcoin, part of that single-minded enthusiasm includes the fiercerejection ofcriticism.

At the end of last week, even as the digital currencywas risingand then crashingby more than $1,000in a day, true believers rebuffedanysuggestionthe market was strange or dangerous.

"I believe it is going to be the No. 1currency within ten years," bitcoin bull Ronnie MoastoldCBC last week. "That would put the valuation at $6 trillionand that would exactly be where China and gold is today."

As a quirky, if risky, plaything fora narrowly circumscribed group of technology enthusiasts, the ups and downs of bitcoin, driven by fervid comments fromfolks like Moas,havehad little effect on the wider economy.

But bitcoinand its many imitatorsare now going through a transition from fringe to mainstream.

Last night, America's largest options exchange market, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, began trading bitcoin futures. Next week, the larger and more established Chicago Mercantile Exchange begins a bitcoin-based market of its own.

And suddenly, we may bereaching a dangerous point, one where the unregulated trade in digital currencies which many have described asthe modern example of afinancial mania likethe South Sea Bubble and the 17thcentury Dutchtulip bulb craze will be in a position to potentially destabilize the entire global economy.

That certainly doesn'tmean a cryptocurrency-ledeconomic collapse is inevitable.Nor does it mean bitcoinand its ilk are without value.

Bitcoin bugs

I remember receiving some verbal attacksin theearlierdays of bitcoin when I comparedbitcoins to gold. The attacks didn't comefrom bitcoin traders, who were then a much tiniergroup, but from those derisively described by mainstream investors as "gold bugs."

The 2013 column, called Gold and bits, two sides of the same coin,pointed out that for all the criticism the digital currency was getting at the time, bitcoin was no less credible than gold as a speculative asset.

Yes, gold has what's known as a value-in-usein electronics and chemistry, but the price people were willing to pay for gold as a financial assetwas so enormous in comparison that gold's speculative monetary value became completely unrelated.

• What is bitcoin and why is it surging?

In the same way, aside from the notional value of bitcoin as a clandestine means ofexchange, its entire value is based on what people are willing to pay for it. And just as with gold's relationship to platinum or silver, the fact that there are substitutes such as Ethereum or IOTA does not necessarily reduce the enthusiasm of bitcoin bugs.

Of course, there are many differences between gold andbitcoins. For one, gold is widely held by governments and institutions that have a hand in setting prices.

Bitcoin doesn't even have a single price, trading hundreds of dollars apart on different U.S. exchanges and with even wider spreads internationally. Up to now, bitcoin has hardlybeen worth regulating.

• Bitcoin value tops $1,000 US for first time since 2013

When bitcoin crashed from more than $1,100USin 2013 to just more than $200in 2015, the world's financial markets didn't notice. There are good reasons to expect a similar, or potentially greater, future crash in the price of bitcoin could be far more destabilizing.

A bigger share of GDP

For one thing, while the number of bitcoinsgrows slowly due to the mining process, the absolute value of bitcoins in circulation is exploding as prices are bid up. Trading could reach astasis point, but because of the way the market is constructed,Financial Times commentator Izabella Kaminskaimaginesan extreme case where bitcoin rises to the value of world GDPbecause there is no reason for anyone to sell.

A fringe interest not long ago, bitcoins have begun creeping their way into conventional investment portfolios through hedge funds. Futures trading on two Chicago exchanges will increase their credibility, and thus their proliferation. As various large banks have complained, that could leave them on the hook to cover trades gone wrong.

And the global financial stake is expanding beyond trading in the digital currencies themselves. As the financial firm GMPsaid last week, Canadian exchanges are becoming a hotbed of new cryptocurrency-relatedcompany listings, with more than 50 about to launch.

Like the early internet

"The level of activity in this market, of quality plays, quality teams, is as high as I've seen since the internet age," GMPCEO Harris Fricker told the business news service Bloomberg. "Canada's place in this is dramatically more important than what it was in the first phase of the internet."

Harking back to the earlier phases of the internetand the dot-com crash that followed maynot be entirely reassuring.

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One of the biggest objections to gold bugs in the world of investing is that speculating ongold creates very little real economic value. When the price plunges, there is nothing of value left behind. Bitcoin is the same.

But perhaps there is a greater danger yet.

In a world where the main forms of investment haveseen hot money bidding up the price of houses, stocks and other investments, bitcoin has become the idealizedexample, the epitome, of what seems to beanirrational speculative trend. That makes it a psychological leader.

The longer the bitcoin boom lasts and the more deeply unregulated digital currenciesbecome entrenched in the wider global economy, the greater the danger that an ultimate bitcoin crash couldprecipitatea far-reaching economic catastrophe.

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