Hydro rates may have trumped sex-ed concerns in Scarborough Rouge-River byelection, experts say

Pocket-book issues may have trumped voters' otherconcernsin theScarborough-RougeRiverbyelectionThursday nightpushing the Progressive Conservatives to victory,even thoughparty leader Patrick Brown did an about-face on the divisivesex-edfile, experts say.

On Thursday, the Liberals lost their 18-year holdon the riding, losing the seat to PC candidate Raymond Cho by a decisive margin.

But the historic resultmay have surprised no one more than Brown himself, who acknowledgedahead of thebyelection, thathis changing position on the Liberal government'ssex-edcurriculum could cost the party.

Brown promisedin a letter last week to scrap the curriculum; a position he called a "mistake" on Monday.

• PC candidate Raymond Cho winsScarborough-RougeRiverbyelection
• Patrick Brown says promise to scrap Liberalsex-edcurriculum was a 'mistake'
• Patrick Brown says PCs may loseScarboroughbyelectionafter flip flop onsex-ed

ButaRyersonpolitical science professor says just taking a stand on the contentious file may have been enough to solidify the party's win, notwithstanding the flip-flop.

Existence of letter 'vote-positive' for Brown

"The sheer existence of that letter was vote-positive for Mr. Brown,"MyerSiemiatyckitold CBC News Friday..

"That letter was distributed widely in that constituency Even though there was a retraction, the people who got the message at the door may not have followed subsequent media coverage or they may or may not know about the retraction."

Ahead of Brown's reversal on Monday, Cho maintained thesex-edissue was indeed one that people inhis riding werepassionate about.

"When I look at my riding, the huge majority of Muslim, Catholic, Hindu, Chinese," he said. "All these parents are quite concerned about this issue."

Discontent with hydro rates

But Nancy Jin, a local resident and editor of theChinese-language newspaper Chinese News, suggests thesex-edissue itself may have had little to do with Cho's success. Jin saidthe deciding factors instead came down to voters'growing dissatisfaction with the Liberals'position on bottom-line issues.

• Kathleen Wynne says scrapping Ontario's sex-ed curriculum 'very, very dangerous'

"I think his winning represents the community's discontent with many issues," including what she calls overspending and mismanagement taxpayers money.

"I think a lots of people changed their vote to the PCs," Jin said. "The consumers have to spend on hydro bills, the rate increase year over year and they are very unhappy with those issues."

It was an issue not lost on Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, who following the loss, issued a statement directly addressing the hydro concerns.

Siemiatyckisays the low voter turnout in Thursday'sbyelectionand others isn't enough to serve as an indicator thatthere's a "blue wave"thePCs can rideto a provincial election win in 2018.

But he does saythe Liberals will have to pause and reflect on how pocket-book issues, and hydro rates in particular, will affect their chances.

"They will undoubtedly go to the issues of hydro rates, which have been rising significantly and have been generating public pushback," he said. "I think that is one issue that can play and have legs across the province as a whole."