Russia-Ukraine war: Is a ceasefire deal on the horizon?

US President Donald Trump claimed on Monday that an agreement to end Russia’s nearly four-year war against Ukraine is “closer than ever” after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with several European leaders and US diplomats in the German capital, Berlin.

During the two days of high-level talks in Berlin, diplomats discussed how to secure Ukraine against future military threats from Russia, among other sticking issues.

Before the Berlin meetings, Zelenskyy said Kyiv was willing to drop its NATO ambition in exchange for legally binding security guarantees. Russia used the NATO expansion as one of the justifications for its invasion in 2022.

European leaders, however, say key differences are yet to be resolved between Moscow and Kyiv over territorial issues.

Is a ceasefire agreement finally within reach?

What was discussed in the meeting in Berlin?

The Berlin meetings were attended by US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as key leaders from France, Germany, the United Kingdom and NATO.

In a statement after the talks, European leaders said they and the United States were committed to working together to provide “robust security guarantees” to Ukraine, including a European-led “multinational force Ukraine” supported by the US.

They said the force’s work would include “operating inside Ukraine” as well as assisting in rebuilding Ukraine’s forces, securing its skies and supporting safer seas. They said that Ukrainian forces should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000.

Two US officials, speaking to the Reuters news agency, described the proposed protections as “Article 5-like”, a reference to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence pledge – meaning an attack on one is an attack on all.

Speaking to reporters in Berlin, Zelenskyy said that Kyiv needed a clear understanding of the security guarantees on offer before making any decisions on territorial control under a potential peace settlement. He added that any guarantees must include effective ceasefire monitoring.

Ukrainian officials have been cautious about what form such guarantees could take. Kyiv received security assurances backed by the US and Europe after gaining independence in 1991, but those did not prevent Russia’s invasions in 2014 (Crimea) and 2022.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Washington had offered “considerable” security guarantees during the Berlin talks.

“What the US has placed on the table here in Berlin, in terms of legal and material guarantees, is really considerable,” Merz said at a joint news conference with Zelenskyy.

Russia has yet to comment on the proposals.

What has Trump said about the Russia-Ukraine war?

“We’re having tremendous support from European leaders. They want to get it [the war] ended also,” Trump told reporters on Monday.

“We had numerous conversations with President [Vladimir] Putin of Russia, and I think we’re closer now than we have been, ever, and we’ll see what we can do.”

Since coming to power in January, the US president has been making efforts to end the war and has pressed Ukraine to offer concessions.

Several rounds of high-level discussions, including an Alaska summit between Trump and Putin in August, and draft peace proposals have failed to end Europe’s deadliest war since World War II.

What did Zelenskyy say?

In an X post, Zelenskyy wrote on Monday that “if these meetings had taken place earlier, the progress would have been even greater”, referring to meetings with Witkoff and Kushner.

“Of course, we have different positions with Russia regarding territories. This must be acknowledged and discussed openly. I believe that the American side, acting as a mediator, will propose various steps to try to find at least some form of consensus,” Zelenskyy wrote.

“We will do everything possible to find clear answers to questions about security guarantees, territories, and money as compensation for Ukraine to rebuild. It is necessary to understand the source of this funding.”

Ukraine had earlier signalled it may be willing to abandon its ambition to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for firm Western security guarantees. The Trump administration has been against NATO membership for Kyiv.

He added, “We are discussing security guarantees. And before taking any steps on the battlefield, both the military and the civilian population must have a clear understanding of what the security guarantees will be. This is very important.”

It is unclear what particular security guarantees Ukraine would receive, and which countries will contribute to providing them.

Addressing the Dutch parliament on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine and Europe are working on a document that could “stop the killing,” adding that “every single detail matters” and “every detail represents a human life”, according to Al Jazeera’s Audrey MacAlpine, reporting from Kyiv.

McAlpine said that Zelenskyy is mirroring the language of Trump, who has said the phrase “stop the killing” time and time again.

“He’s talking about documents. We know, before this meeting in Berlin, there were three documents in circulation. Now it appears from comments from Zelenskyy that there are five documents, the details of which we are still waiting to gather. But certainly it’s an evolving landscape with lots of difficult and nuanced pieces which we’re still waiting to get more information on,” McAlpine added.

Is a ceasefire truly ‘closer than ever’?

Experts doubt it.

“Trump has repeatedly claimed that a peace deal is close without sustainable agreement,” Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at London think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

Another foreign policy expert, Nathalie Tocci, believes “it’s extremely unlikely that a ceasefire is going to be reached now.”

“I think that it’s far more likely that we’re going to remain in the context of ongoing war,” Tocci, director at the Istituto Affari Internazionali, told Al Jazeera. She added that this is because issues of territory and security remain unresolved.

Russia controls nearly 20 percent of eastern Ukraine and has been slowly gaining territory as Ukraine’s military has been weakened by desertions and dwindling military aid. Moscow annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014.

“It’s probably impossible that Ukrainians will voluntarily withdraw from these territories unless we will also see a withdrawal of Russian forces on the other side,” Tocci told Al Jazeera.

Al Jazeera’s McAlpine also said that one of the main sticking points is the question of territory.

She added that Zelenskyy has recently been firm on not giving up the Ukrainian territory of Donbas (in the country’s east). “We know that the Russian side is hoping to control the entirety of the Donbas region. Ukraine would prefer to draw the lines where they are,” McAlpine said.

“Recent polling here in Ukraine shows that 75 percent of Ukrainians reject withdrawal from the Donbas region.” They back the idea of freezing the current front line.

Giles from Chatham House said that there are still parallel negotiation tracks – one involving the US and Ukraine, and another between Ukraine and European nations. He added that there is no clear evidence that these efforts are fully coordinated or aligned in terms of strategy.

“There is no guarantee that anything agreed will be accepted by Russia, and reason to think that anything that was agreed is achievable,” Giles added.

“The key ingredient to make a ceasefire possible remains exactly as it has always been. Russia will only agree to stop fighting if it feels that it will gain more from a ceasefire than it will from continuing to attack Ukraine,” he said.

What will end the war in Ukraine?

“The answer to what will end the fighting remains the same that it always has been, for Russia to be beaten back and for Ukraine to be beaten into submission,” Giles said.

Giles explained that Russia and Ukraine can not agree on the same terms for a ceasefire because their war aims are incompatible and “so far apart that they are exceptional in terms of modern wars.”

Trump has repeatedly echoed many of the demands by the Kremlin, including on territorial concessions. His initial 28-point plan to end the war included a clause on amnesty for Russian war crimes. Zelenskyy has expressed his opposition to it.

Giles said that after the 28-point plan, which has since been revised following pushback from European leaders, Russia feels it is at a disadvantage.

“Russia will only accept a ceasefire agreement if it believes it can violate at will and that facilitates its resumption of the war at a time of its choosing,” he added.